The Confidence Trap
The more confident someone sounds, the more skeptical you should be.
Truth is often found by stripping away the non-essential.
In mathematics, a beautiful proof is often the simplest one.
In design, the most effective form is often the simplest.
A true solution gets directly to the heart of the problem.
If you say something smart that I understand, I think you're clever.
If you say something I can't understand at all, I assume you're operating on a higher plane.
I can't judge the limits of your knowledge, so I just nod along.
We are fooled by complicated, but not complex, systems. They are just complicated by design to confuse us.
The U.S. Constitution is 7,591 words. A standard mortgage contract is over 15,000 words. And the U.S. tax code exceeds 11 million words.
Some length is necessary (as Winston Churchill said about post-WWII decisions affecting millions).
Much of it is unnecessary filler designed to confuse or impress.
A doctor who prescribes a simple lifestyle change to prevent illness vs. one who insists on an expensive, complex, and unnecessary procedure.
In 2013, Harold Varmus gave a speech on the difficulty of the war on cancer. The National Cancer Act of 1971 aimed to eradicate cancer, yet success remained elusive.
"Despite extraordinary progress in understanding cancer cell defects, we have not succeeded in controlling cancer as much as possible." — Harold Varmus
A major issue was excessive focus on cancer treatment over prevention.
Prevention is often overlooked because it lacks the prestige of scientific treatments.
"You can't die from cancer if you don't get cancer in the first place." — MIT cancer researcher Robert Weinberg
Prevention lacks intellectual appeal compared to molecular and genetic research. It is often ignored in favor of more stimulating scientific work.
More people are riding bikes, writing, and being "creative" than ever before.
But, more people are also employees than ever before.
Being an employee separates decision from consequence.
Employee culture pushes people to justify their existence by doing something. By being 'busy.'
That "something" is often making things complicated over simple.
It's intervention over non-intervention.
It's treatment over prevention.
Because doing nothing doesn't show up on a resume.
You can be certain that the person who is speaking with complexity, using jargon and complicated models, is either confused or trying to confuse you.
Or, more commonly, he is trying to impress you and himself.
He is engaging in performance.
The person who truly knows will strive for clarity above all else.
For clarity reveals the truth, and the truth is the only thing that prevents costly mistakes.